What Ruto will likely do to win Kenyans' confidence and votes in 2027

President William Ruto’s spiel about inheriting empty coffers rings hollow. It could, however, provide the pathway to his re-election in 2027. 

Under President Uhuru Kenyatta, the government ran somewhat smoothly, certainly better than Kenya Kwanza has done in its more than two years at the helm. Systems worked, and they couldn’t possibly have been running on dry. 

The logical explanation for the morass the country is wading through, in light of recent claims by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and former Public Service CS Justin Muturi, is that the money Uhuru left at the Treasury has been systematically pilfered by people who believe they cannot be held responsible. The confusion during, and immediately after the watershed transition period gives them cover.

American philosopher Noam Chomsky once said that the best way to control a people is to create an imaginary enemy who appears more dangerous than you, then present yourself as their saviour. 

From the outset, Dr Ruto was determined to besmirch Uhuru’s government, taking advantage of every opportunity to place blame on it for his shortcomings. Except for extractive taxation that is super efficient, nothing else seems to work in this country anymore. Systems, from health to education, exhibit signs of chronic fatigue. 

But, is Ruto truly inept, or is he taking risks, executing a plan that will dramatically raise his popularity circa 2026? Prima facie, it’s easy to believe he is hopelessly inept. However, his nonchalant attitude to criticism and don’t-care attitude to public outcry speak of someone who has devised a plan that will earn him re-election in 2027. 

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He is not bothered by abstract political realignments targeting to unseat him. He has even put opponents on notice that he is ready and waiting for them to agree on their candidate. Such assuredness stems from two things; enough money for a campaign blitzkrieg, and a watertight re-election plan buoyed by incumbency. After all, African presidents don’t lose elections. 

Create despondency

Ruto appears to have deliberately set out to create despondency among Kenyans, allowing systems to fail, and watching as the Opposition and media amplify that failure. But he has proven he is nobody’s fool. He seems to have calculated the risks and will shift just when the scale is about to tip. 

He was smart enough to realise that pride would be his Waterloo when Gen Z had him by the jugular in June 2024. Alone, he was teetering on the brink. He swallowed his pride at his weakest moment and hurriedly enlisted the help of his nemesis Raila Odinga. He also created a false public perception that he had Uhuru’s backing by paying him a visit in Ichaweri. 

Ruto backed down on the Finance Bill 2024 and gave in to demands to dismiss his first Cabinet. He has backed down on church donations, effectively killing any discourse on that subject. 

He took it in his stride to accept and make jest of monikers, and that took the steam out of Gen Z’s itch to baptise him every other week. He is learning the art of knowing when to hold on, when to fight, and when to run. 

Just when growing public anger will be ready to burst free of its restraints, Ruto will act. He has already mapped out specific areas to tweak. Social Health Authority will suddenly come to life. Hospitals will have drugs. Schools capitation will be timely, bursaries will be available, the cost of fuel will come down drastically as will food prices and taxation, and abductions will cease. 

There is enough money in Kenya, but it is probably being hoarded to manipulate Kenyans at the appropriate time. Chomsky contends that “There are no poor countries, only failed systems of resource management.”

Ruto will then present himself as the messiah we have all been waiting for. Gullible, amnesiac Kenyans will forget their beef with him, giving him the edge over an ideologically challenged opposition.

With Raila playing political leech, any hope of unseating Ruto hinges on the Opposition uniting and fronting a single, strong candidate, and rallying the youth to its side. Time is not on its side.